Mikrosimuleringsmodellen SMILE

DREAM udvikler og vedligeholder mikrosimuleringsmodellen SMILE, Simulation Model for Individual Lifecycle Evaluation. Det essentielle ved en mikrosimuleringsmodel er, at den tager udgangspunkt i enkelte individer (frem for grupper af individer), for eksempel personer eller familier.

Fremskrivningerne med SMILE baseres på en initialbefolkning bestående af den samlede danske befolkning i et givet år. I simuleringen fremskrives det resterende livsforløb for hver enkelt person i initialbefolkningen og herved laves langsigtede fremskrivninger. En mere omfattende introduktion til mikrosimulering kan læses her.

De nedenstående dokumenter beskriver opbygningen af SMILE og dermed modellens metoder og datagrundlag. Rapporterne præsenterer desuden en anvendelse af SMILE til en langsigtet fremskrivning af boligefterspørgslen på det danske boligmarked.

Artikler

Logit Scaling: A General Method for Alignment in Microsimulation models
International Journal of Microsimulation, vol. 9 (3), side 89-102
Peter Stephensen
Artikel, vinter 2016
Abstract

Rapporter

Fremskrivning af familiekarakteristika og boligefterspørgslen i udvalgte danske kommuner
Sammenfatning af individuelle fremskrivninger af demografisk udvikling og boligpræferencer i 42 udvalgte kommuner
Søren Skotte Bjerregaard, Marianne Frank Hansen, Tobias Markeprand og Jeppe Højgaard Krog
Rapport, maj 2017

Rapporter omhandlede hver af de 42 enkeltstående kommuner kan downloades fra Boligøkonomisk Videncenters hjemmeside
Fremskrivning af familiekarakteristika og boligefterspørgslen i danske kommuner
SMILE version 3.0
Marianne Frank Hansen og Tobias Markeprand
Rapport, september 2015
Fremskrivning af den danske boligefterspørgsel
SMILE version 1.0
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen, Peter Stephensen og Joachim Borg Kristensen
Rapport, april 2013
Sammenfatning af "Fremskrivning af den danske boligefterspørgsel"
Sammenfatning
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen, Peter Stephensen og Joachim Borg Kristensen
Rapport, april 2013
Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark
The Dynamic Microsimulation Model SMILE
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen, Peter Stephensen and Joachim Borg Kristensen
Report (preliminary version), December 2013
Summary of "Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark"
The Dynamic Microsimulation Model SMILE
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen, Peter Stephensen and Joachim Borg Kristensen
Report, April 2013
Rapportbeskrivelse for "Fremskrivning af den danske boligefterspørgsel"
Rapportbeskrivelse
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen, Peter Stephensen og Joachim Borg Kristensen
Rapport, april 2013

Konferencepapirer

Projecting morbidity in Denmark using the SMILE microsimulation model
Conference paper for the 7th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association
Søren Skotte Bjerregaard og Marianne Frank Hansen
Konferencepapir, maj 2019
Abstract
Estimating sub-national behaviour in the Danish microsimulation model SMILE - A general approach for estimating transition probabilities with numerous high dimensional covariates
Conference paper for the 7th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association
Marianne Frank Hansen, Tobias Markeprand og Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir, maj 2019 (opdatering af 2016-version)
Abstract
Full Integration of a CGE model in a Microsimulation Model: A Recipe
Conference paper for the European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association
Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir, september 2016
Abstract
Estimating sub-national behaviour in the Danish microsimulation model SMILE
Conference paper for the Conference of European Statisticians - Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections
Marianne Frank Hansen, Tobias Ejnar Markeprand og Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir, marts 2016
Abstract
The Event Pump: An Agent Based approach to Microsimulation
Conference paper for the 5th World Congress of the International Microsimulation Association
Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir, september 2015
Abstract
A microsimulation model for educational forecasting
Conference paper for the European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association
Niels Erik Kaaber Rasmussen og Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir, oktober 2014
Abstract
An Information-Loss-Minimizing Approach to Multinominal Alignment in Microsimulation Models
Conference paper for the European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association
Peter Stephensen
Konferencepapir (foreløbig version), oktober 2014
Abstract
The Danish Microsimulation Model SMILE - An overview
Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
Peter Stephensen
Conference paper, December 2013
Abstract
Modeling Household Formation and Housing Demand in Denmark using the Dynamic Microsimulation Model SMILE
Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen and Peter Stephensen
Conference paper, December 2013
Abstract
SBAM: An Algorithm for Pair Matching
Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
Peter Stephensen and Tobias Markeprand
Conference paper, December 2013
Abstract
Conditional inference trees in dynamic microsimulation - modelling transition probabilities in the SMILE model
Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
Niels Erik Kaaber Rasmussen and Marianne Frank Hansen
Conference paper, December 2013
Abstract
A Bayesian approach to labour market modelling in dynamic microsimulation
Conference paper for the 4th General Conference of the International Microsimulation Association
Hans Bækgaard
Conference paper, December 2013
Abstract

Arbejdspapirer

Demografiske hændelser og befolkningsudvikling
2012:2 [DREAM]
Jonas Zangenberg Hansen
Arbejdspapir, februar 2012
Abstract
SBAM: An Algorithm for Pair Matching
2012:1 [DREAM]
Peter Stephensen
Arbejdspapir, februar 2012
Abstract